Causal Analysis of En Route Flight Inefficiency–the US Experience | Request PDF

En route inefficiency is measured in terms of extra distance flown by an aircraft, above the theoretical shortest distance (great circle) route. Three sources of inefficiency are explored: convective weather, miles-in-trail restrictions, and winds. Historical flight records are projected onto a small set of nominal trajectories clustered from historical data, and compared against the history of the potential causal factors. Statistical models reveal the estimated influence of the factors. In this case, convective weather was the most influential factor in seeming to cause flights to deviate from what would have been a less costly trajectory. Winds and miles-in-trail restrictions are also important for some origin-destination pairs, but less significant than convective weather.