Predictability Evaluation Based on Gate-In Fuel Prediction and Cost-to-Carry Estimation

Aviation system predictability has recently gained popularity among air navigation service providers and academic researchers. To better understand how to measure predictability and how to assess the potential benefit of enhanced predictability, the authors propose a new predictability metric based on flight gate-in fuel (GIF). The GIF can indicate the impact of predictability on airlines. A GIF prediction model was first developed using a comprehensive flight level fuel uplift and consumption dataset provided by a U.S.-based airline. Then, available FAA data were merged in the process and the developed prediction model was applied to other airlines. Scheduled block time (SBT) is used as another predictability metric to compare with GIF. In light of the trend of GIF and SBT changes, in general, these two metrics were found to be positively correlated. However, for a number of airlines, the correlations were found to be negative suggesting airlines may have different fuel loading strategies regarding flight predictability. The proposed GIF metric can also be directly monetized through a cost-to-carry (CTC) scheme. Extra fuel burn to carry GIF is calculated using CTC factors. For year 2012 and 2013, the authors found, on a per flight basis, the estimated CTC value ranging from $318 to $942 across six U.S. airlines. In a system level, the estimated CTC values range from $84 million to $497 million showing significant benefits toward improving flight predictability. The proposed GIF metric can also be integrated in the benefit assessments of various initiatives and programs such as NEXTGEN.