Early Pandemic Behaviors and the Role of Vaccines in Reversing Pandemic Mobility Trends: Evidence from a US Panel

The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted travel behavior and resulted in the emergence of new mobility trends. In this paper, we study the degree to which vaccines played a role in reversing pandemic-induced travel behaviors and contributed to a “return to normal.” Using five waves of original U.S.-based survey data combined with passive smartphone tracking data collected in 2020 and 2021, we show that in the early phases of the pandemic, the behavioral response of people in the United States was heterogeneous: individuals with low levels of concern about being infected with COVID-19 engaged in riskier behaviors than those with higher levels of concern, such as traveling more, eschewing masks, attending large gatherings, and using public transportation. Vaccine availability in early 2021 played a significant role in reducing those concerns, which in turn was reflected in significantly increased mobility and travel frequency. We also found a strong positive association between getting vaccinated and the frequency of using public transportation. Telecommuting and working from home remained high after vaccine availability, but we found that the fraction of full-time employees that worked from home every day significantly dropped. This reduction in fully remote work was no different among vaccinated and unvaccinated people, which suggests that the decision to return to in-person work was not only driven by employees’ safety concerns and preferences, but was also a function of employers’ expectations and their decision to reopen their offices. We discuss the implications of our findings on understanding travel behavior during pandemic impact- and recovery periods.