Understanding pedestrian and bicyclist safety trends in the post-pandemic era

This study investigates pedestrian and bicyclist safety trends in the United States and California before and after the COVID-19 pandemic, with attention to urban, rural, and disadvantaged communities. National fatality data from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System and California fatalities and serious injuries (FSI) data from the Statewide Integrated Traffic Records System (2018–2022) were analyzed. A paired Wilcoxon signed-rank test was used to assess significance, and a random-effects negative binomial regression with panel data was employed to examine FSIs in California, accounting for unobserved heterogeneity. This study illuminates significant shifts in ped-bike safety trends in the post-pandemic era. Nationally, ped-bike fatality rates (per 10,000 population) rose by 18.76%, with urban areas experiencing a 21.02% (all p < 0.001) increase and rural areas 7.29% (p = 0.036). Disadvantaged communities saw a 20.0% increase vs. 17.5% in non-disadvantaged areas (p < 0.001). In California, FSI rates increased by 6.74% overall, with 5.55% in disadvantaged and 8.00% in non-disadvantaged census tracts (all p < 0.020). The regression model showed significant associations between FSIs and land use types, exposure levels, and disadvantage indicators (e.g., transportation, health). These findings underscore growing safety disparities in the post-pandemic era and highlight the need for tailored, community-informed interventions.