ITS Berkeley

A Revealed Preference Methodology to Evaluate Regret Minimization with Challenging Choice Sets: A Wildfire Evacuation Case Study

Wong, Stephen D.
Chorus, Caspar G.
Shaheen, Susan A.
Walker, Joan L.
2020

Regret is often experienced for difficult, important, and accountable choices. Consequently, we hypothesize that random regret minimization (RRM) may better describe evacuation behavior than traditional random utility maximization (RUM). However, in many travel related contexts, such as evacuation departure timing, specifying choice sets can be challenging due to unknown attribute levels and near-endless alternatives, for example. This has implications especially for estimating RRM models, which calculates attribute-level regret via pairwise comparison of attributes across all alternatives...

Activity-Based Travel Models and Transportation Equity Analysis: Research Directions and Exploration of Model Performance

Bills, Tierra S.
Sall, Elizabeth A.
Walker, Joan L.
2012

The current state of practice for transportation equity analysis is moving toward the use of activity-based travel models for scenario analysis. However, little has been done to validate the use of these models for equity analysis. The first objective of this paper is to present a research framework for the equity analysis of long-range transportation plans, for the purpose of critiquing the current state of practice and pointing to key research needs. This research framework is used to identify four research areas for furthering transportation equity analysis: (a) identifying...

Analysis of Teleworkers’ Experiences, Adoption Evolution and Activity Patterns Through the Pandemic

Tahlyan, Divyakant
Hamad, Nadim
Said, Maher
Mahmassani, Hani
Stathopoulos, Amanda
Shaheen, Susan
Walker, Joan L.
2022

The COVID-19 pandemic significantly altered the remote work landscape in the U.S. and there is growing evidence that at least some portion of the remote work trends will stick beyond the pandemic. However, there are many unanswered questions regarding the individual experiences with telework through the pandemic, the evolution of remote work through the pandemic and the potential interaction of remote work with the activity participation behavior, which will have implications for future urban and transportation planning decisions. In this report, we present three studies focused on gaining...

Asymmetric, Closed-Form, Finite-Parameter Models of Multinomial Choice

Brathwaite, Timothy
Walker, Joan L.
2018

Class imbalance, where there are great differences between the number of observations associated with particular discrete outcomes, is common within transportation and other fields. In the statistics literature, one explanation for class imbalance that has been hypothesized is an asymmetric (rather than the typically symmetric) choice probability function. Unfortunately, few relatively simple models exist for testing this hypothesis in transportation settings—settings that are inherently multinomial. Our paper fills this gap. In particular, we address the following questions: “how can one...

Beware of Black Swans: Taking Stock of the Description–Experience Gap in Decision Under Uncertainty

de Palma, Andre
Abdellaoui, Mohammed
Attanasi, Giuseppe
Ben-Akiva, Moshe
Erev, Ido
Fehr-Duda, Helga
Fok, Dennis
Fox, Craig R.
Hertwig, Ralph
Picard, Nathalie
Wakker, Peter P.
Walker, Joan L.
Weber, Martin
2014

Uncertainty pervades most aspects of life. From selecting a new technology to choosing a career, decision makers rarely know in advance the exact outcomes of their decisions. Whereas the consequences of decisions in standard decision theory are explicitly described (the decision from description (DFD) paradigm), the consequences of decisions in the recent decision from experience (DFE) paradigm are learned from experience. In DFD, decision makers typically overrespond to rare events. That is, rare events have more impact on decisions than their objective probabilities warrant (...

Beyond Rationality in Travel Demand Models

Walker, Joan L.
2011

The effectiveness of transportation policies will depend on how users respond to them. Therefore, we must understand how to predict and influence behavior over the long term, which is the realm of travel demand modeling. Relevant decisions made by individuals include where to live and work; the type and quantity of vehicles and transit passes to own; the types, locations and scheduling of activities; and by what modes and routes one travels to those activities. This article explores ways to improve travel demand models to reflect actual behavior, whether it is “rational” or not. The...

Bridging the Gap Between Evacuations and the Sharing Economy

Wong, Stephen D.
Walker, Joan L.
Shaheen, Susan A.
2021

This paper examines the opportunities for addressing evacuations by leveraging the sharing economy. To support this research, we use a mixed-method approach employing archival research of sharing economy actions, 24 high-ranking expert interviews, and a survey of individuals impacted by Hurricane Irma in 2017 (n = 645). Using these data, we contribute to the literature in four key ways. First, we summarize sharing economy company actions in 30 U.S. disasters. Second, we discuss results from 24 expert interviews on 11 sharing economy benefits (ranging from resource redundancy to positive...

Bridging Troubled Water: Evacuations and the Sharing Economy

Wong, Stephen
Walker, Joan
Shaheen, Susan
2018

Since Hurricane Katrina, there has been an increasing focus on disaster relief efforts in the United States. In this paper, the authors examine the progression of transportation management under emergency conditions and opportunities for addressing disasters by leveraging the sharing economy. The sharing economy mobilizes the unused capacity and resources of individuals through mobile and Internet platforms. Notable examples include mobility and the housing sectors. The authors argue here that there is an opportunity to improve disaster preparedness, response, and recovery by...

Calculating and Forecasting Induced Vehicle-Miles of Travel Resulting from Highway Projects: Findings and Recommendations from an Expert Panel

Deakin, Elizabeth
Dock, Fred
Garry, Gordon
Handy, Susan
McNally, Michael
Sall, Elizabeth
Skabardonis, Alex
Walker, Joan
Rheinhardt, Karl
2020

In the context of implementation of SB 743 (Steinberg, 2013), staff at the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) have been developing guidance documents on how to calculate induced travel, working with their counterparts at the California Air Resources Board (CARB) and the Governor’s Office of Planning and Research (OPR). OPR’s technical advisory discusses two methods for estimating induced travel: an approach based on the application of travel models and an approach using elasticities drawn from the peer-reviewed literature (such as the National Center for Sustainable...

Car Ownership Motivations Among Undergraduate Students in China, Indonesia, Japan, Lebanon, Netherlands, Taiwan, and USA

Belgiawan, Prawira Fajarindra
Schmöcker, Jan-Dirk
Abou-Zeid, Maya
Walker, Joan
Lee, Tzu-Chang
Ettema, Dick F.
Fujii, Satoshi
2014

“Peak car” and related discussions suggest that especially younger people (age cohort until 30) have less desire to drive and purchase cars. This might though only be true for a limited range of developed countries. This study aims to understand the role of personal background and the country context influencing future car ownership decisions of younger people in seven countries (China, Indonesia, Japan, Lebanon, Netherlands, Taiwan, and USA). The main foci of this research are undergraduate students where it is expected that their current attitudes and habits will influence their travel...