ITS Berkeley

Multinomial Probit with Time-Series Data: Unifying State Dependence and Serial Correlation Models

Daganzo, Carlos F.
Sheffi, Y.
1982

This paper develops a general method for treating discrete data sets containing individuals that have made more than one choice under varying stimuli. The multinomial probit model is shown to possess properties that make it very attractive for this application, as with it, it is possible to develop an estimation process that uses all the information in the data, and is both relatively inexpensive and consistent with utility maximization. The method, which is a generalization of Heckman's binary model, can include taste variations and more than two alternatives.

Physical Distribution from a Warehouse

Daganzo, Carlos F.
1983

This paper studies the costs involved in distributing items from a warehouse or depot to randomly scattered customers on a day-to-day basis. Two trade-offs are explored simultaneously. The first one arises because by accumulating large inventories at the depot it is possible to build more efficient distribution tours. This trade-off has already been explored for both distribution of goods (Burns et al., 1983) and passengers (Daganzo et al., 1977; Hendrickson, 1978). Another tradeoff, which involves the length of individual vehicle tours (...

Tandem Toll Booths for the Golden Gate Bridge

Hall, Randolph W.
Daganzo, Carlos F.
1983

Many toll plazas are constrained in width by buildings or other physical barriers. These barriers may make the cost of adding toll lanes prohibitive. One method for increasing the capacity of a toll facility without increasing its width is to use tandem toll booths. A tandem toll booth consists of two toll takers in a single toll lane both serving alternating sets of vehicles simultaneously. The capacity of tandem toll booths is calculated with time-space diagrams and the cumulative headway distributions of vehicles at a conventional toll booth. The capacity depends on the maximum of...

Extrapolating One-Week Automobile Usage Data to Longer Time Periods

Horowitz, Abraham D.
1983

This study illustrates a statistical procedure that can be used to estimate the fraction of a given population experiencing a “rare” event during a long time period, given a few days of observation. In an automobile usage context, the rare event could be the occurrence of an automobile occupancy of four or more persons and/or a travel distance of 100 miles or more on any given day. The technique, which can be important for the design of durable goods, is illustrated with four numerical examples.

Parking Studies, Gap Acceptance and the Intervening Opportunities Model: A Unified Quick Caliobratin/Estimation Method

Hurdle, V. F.
Hauser, E.
Daganzo, C. F.
1983

Discrete choice models are statistical tools, akin to regression, in which the dependent variable is categorical. They have been used mainly in connection with modal split and marketing studies, but some other transportation traffic theory studies can also benefit from their application; for example, gap acceptance studies, certain studies of parking durations, and safety studies are areas of traffic engineering that have been or can be studied with discrete choice models. Although discrete choice models usually require a computer and sophisticated software, these needs may be...

Linear Probit Models: Statistical Properties and Improved Estimation Methods

Sparmann, Jürg M.
Daganzo, Carlos F.
Soheily, Mahboubeh
1983

The multinomial probit model is a statistical tool that is well suited to analyze some transportation problems. Modal split, gap acceptance, and route choice are some examples of application contexts. This paper presents an in-depth analysis of its statistical properties and an estimation method for the trinomial case. In the statistical part of the paper it is shown that for multinomial probit models with specifications that are linear in the parameters, the global maximum of the log-likelihood function is consistent if the data do not exhibit multicollinearity as defined in the text. For...

Railroad Classification Yard Throughput: The Case of Multistage Triangular Sorting

Daganzo, Carlos F.
Dowling, Richard G.
Hall, Randolph W.
1983

Procedures for improving the efficiency of classification yard operations are studied in this paper. Multistage sorting strategies make efficient use of land and tracks. Equations are derived giving the service time per car and space requirements of three multistage sorting strategies: the sorting-by-block, the sorting-by-train, and the triangular sorting strategies. Exact service time formulas are given for the first two strategies, and an approximation is given for the last strategy. The approximation, when compared with exact calculations, proved to be quite robust. Errors were on the...

Stochastic Network Equilibrium with Multiple Vehicle Types and Asymmetric, Indefinite Link Cost Jacobians

Daganzo, Carlos F.
1983

This paper discusses a family of general link cost functions that can be used to model multimodal transportation network equilibrium problems. The family includes as a special case the currently favored family of monotonically increasing functions but does not necessarily have to have a symmetric or semi-definite Jacobian. In this way multimodal networks can be modeled somewhat more realistically. The paper also allows stochastic link costs for some or all the links and modes. It is shown that under mild conditions the equilibrium exists and is unique, but more importantly, that there is a...

Derivation of Delays Based on Input-Output Analysis

Daganzo, Carlos F.
1983

In a recent paper Michalpoulos and Pisharody (1981) contend that traditional input-output analysis results in substantial overestimation of delays, and they develop an alternate, more laborious, calculation method. This premise is incorrect since input-output analysis is nothing more than a simple accounting method, which by definition gives exact results. It should give results consistent with the more laborious method proposed by those authors.

The Length of Tours in Zones of Different Shapes

Daganzo, Carlos F.
1984

The object of this paper is to explain how the expected length of traveling salesman tours changes with zone shape. To do this, a simple strategy that yields good traveling salesman tours is presented. The resulting tours are suboptimal but appear to be close to those that can be obtained by hand. Thus, the formulas that are provided may also be indicative of the length of tours built with better strategies. The results of this paper are useful for the design of distribution systems.