Are our Transit Systems Ready for Earthquakes?

Located on the tectonic boundary with multiple active faults, the San Francisco Bay Area is highly vulnerable to earthquakes. The United States Geological Survey (USGS) has estimated a 72% probability of an earthquakewith a magnitude of 6.7 or greater striking the region within the next 30 years. Historical seismic events have demonstrated the profound impact earthquakes can have on transportation systems. During the 1989 Loma Prieta Earthquake, the closure of the San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge, a critical transit route for San Francisco commuters, left nearly 400,000 commuters and approximately 245,000 vehicles daily with limited alternative routes. In response to this and other disasters, governments and transportation agencies have actively initiated measures to reinforce critical transportation infrastructure. However, there is a lack of detailed plans for responding to, and recovering from, major earthquakes. To bridge this gap, our team carried out interviews with relevant stakeholders to better understand the problem. We then developed a multimodal traffic simulation tool to evaluate the potential impact of closing a Bay Area Rapid ransit (BART) station on surrounding traffic flow if a major earthquake disrupts travel on the system. The model was applied to the MacArthur station on the BART Orange Line, which runs from Richmond to Berryessa, a distance of 51 miles.